The Danger Awaiting Bitcoin: Quantum Computers Threat

Is Bitcoin’s Days Numbered? Quantum Computers Could Decipher the Code Within 5 Years 2025

All cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are forced to face a serious problem. Rapidly developing quantum computers could reach a point within five years where they can solve even the most powerful cryptographic structures.

Bitcoin’s security basically stems from a structure based on Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) and 256-bit random private keys. Since these private keys have a probability space close to the number of atoms in the universe, guessing them is considered practically impossible. The system is further strengthened by the fact that the public key, generated from the private key via elliptic curve mathematics, cannot be reversed; meaning, there is no known method to revert from a public key to a private key. Additionally, Bitcoin addresses do not directly reveal public keys but pass them through a two-stage hashing process, creating an extra layer of protection against attacks. When all these features are combined, it becomes practically impossible for classical computers to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic structure using current methods. However, when we ascend to the level of quantum computers, this impossibility vanishes. Indeed, recent analyses show that quantum computing is progressing much faster than expected and the crypto ecosystem is now racing against time.

2030 Could Be a Breaking Point for Bitcoin

Théau Peronnin, CEO of the Nvidia-partnered quantum computing startup Alice & Bob, stated at Web Summit Lisbon 2025 that quantum computers would reach a level capable of breaking Bitcoin’s security mechanisms “after 2030.” According to Peronnin, blockchain networks must transition to a quantum-resistant structure by “2030 at the latest”; otherwise, the threat posed by quantum machines will begin to grow. This statement gains even more significance with Google‘s October announcement of its “Quantum Echoes” algorithm, which performs operations 13,000 times faster than classic supercomputers. This momentum in quantum calculation indicates that risks long discussed in the crypto world are now becoming much more concrete.

$718 Billion Worth of Bitcoin is Open to Quantum Attack

An analysis by Chainalysis and Project Eleven reveals that approximately $718 billion worth of Bitcoin is currently held in addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks. particularly in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses used in Bitcoin’s early years, users’ public keys are completely visible on-chain, allowing quantum computers to derive the private key from them. Therefore, the ecosystem’s most fragile assets reside in these old addresses created years ago, some of which are forgotten or unmoved.

On the Ethereum (ETH) side, concerns have been pulled to an even earlier date. Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, stated at Devconnect held in Buenos Aires in November that quantum computers could reach the level to break elliptic curve cryptography “before the 2028 US elections” and emphasized that the Ethereum ecosystem must transition to fully quantum-resistant encryption within the next 4 years.

The Crypto Sector Prepares for a Quantum-Resistant Future

The crypto industry is not standing idle in the face of this threat. Post-quantum algorithms ML-DSA and ML-KEM, standardized by NIST in 2024, have become the basic reference for many companies today. BTQ Technologies announced in October 2025 that it successfully ran a quantum-resistant Bitcoin version for the first time using the NIST-approved ML-DSA. On the other hand, Project Eleven is working on a new infrastructure named Yellowpages, designed to verify ownership of Bitcoin assets in the post-quantum era, following a $6 million investment received in June 2025.

However, it should be noted that there is no full consensus among experts regarding the timing. For example, Blockstream CEO and cryptography expert Adam Back thinks the threat is “20 to 40 years away.” According to Back, Bitcoin can perform the necessary upgrades long before quantum computing reaches a truly critical level. However, looking at the sector in general, most analysts evaluate the risk window as between 5 to 15 years; meaning, the quantum threat for cryptocurrencies is much closer than we think.

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